Strategy Titan released its 2021 retail forecast, showing 4.8 percent growth from 2020. In addition, all nine regions tracked by Strategy Titan are projected to show retail growth from a year earlier.
“While there are some significant wild cards heading into 2021, it looks to be set up for another record retail sales year for RV dealers,” the U.S. RV Retail 2021 Forecast Report stated. “This optimism is being driven by a number of factors.”
Among those factors, the report states, are continued consumer demand, dealer inventory replenishment, and a lack of consumer spending on other discretionary items.
Strategy Titan projects 487,000 retail unit sales in 2021, up from 465,000 in 2020. The company also projects a return to normal industry volume seasonality, the report stated.
Regionally, the Pacific Region is projected to see the largest retail unit growth in 2021, up 11 percent from a year earlier. The report stated 2020 presented challenges in the reasons because of the wildfire season.
“While the regional market ended up 8 percent vs. 2019, it was still below the high-water mark of 72,200 units in 2018,” the reported stated. “While our outlook of 78,600 units is significantly higher than 2018 figures, we feel it is a realistic figure if the 2021 fire season is moderate.”
The other top projected region is the Middle Atlantic. The report stated the Middle Atlantic and New England regions were the slowest growers in 2020, but Strategy Titan expects travel trailer and Type C sales to show high single digit percent growth in 2021 in both regions.
The Middle Atlantic is projected to grow 10.9 percent, with all product categories expected to see close to or above double digit percent unit growth, the report stated.
“This is one of the few regions where Class A is expected to see growth, partially due to two consecutive years of significant unit decreases,” the report stated. “While there is upside volume potential in the fifth wheel and Class B categories, the major variable for that scenario is how quickly dealers can restock inventory and keep it stocked to meet consumer demand.”
The New England Region is projected to see 7 percent growth in 2021.
“Growth is expected in most major categories,” the report stated. “Class B is expected to pull back from an incredibly impressive 2020 that saw about 70 percent unit growth in the category. Even with this pullback, Class B is expected to be 50 percent higher than the previous record year of 2019.”
The South Atlantic and West South Central regions grew about 15 percent in 2020, the report stated, and Strategy Titan projects both regions to flatten sales in 2021.
In the South Atlantic Region, growth is expected at 0.6 percent, with Type A sales continuing a three-year volume decline year-over-year.
“As the largest Class A region in the country by a large margin, these decreases will likely have a significant impact on Class A manufacturers,” the report stated. “While there is upside volume potential in the travel trailer and fifth wheel categories, we feel potential national inventory challenges will cap growth at about 3 percent.”
The West South Central Region is expected to grow 0.8 percent, with Type A sales forecast to decline.
“Travel trailer is also expected to pull back after massive growth in 2020,” the report stated.
The East North Central Region grew more than 10 percent in 2020, and is expected to grow an additional 7.3 percent in 2021, the report stated.
“Bright spots are travel trailer and fifth wheel with both forecasted to be up high single digits,” the report stated. “Class A should decrease slightly and Class B will see a bit of a pullback from truly remarkable growth in 2020.”
Mountain Region growth is forecast at 3.2 percent, driven by travel trailer and Type C sales.
“Class C is expected to continue its strong upward trend,” the report stated. “Class B is likely to see a pullback after 50 percent growth in 2020. Class A will decrease again after three straight years of decreases.”
The West North Central Region is project to grow 5.8 percent, driven by continued strong performances from travel trailer, fifth wheel, and Type C motorhomes.
“Class A is likely to see additional pullbacks after double digit percent decreases in 2020,” the report stated.
Finally, the East South Central Region is expected to grow 0.5 percent, with unit and revenue pullbacks expected in the travel trailer, fifth wheel and Type A segments.
“Even with these decreases, 2021 should still deliver near record volumes,” the report stated. “Class B/C look poised for exceptionally strong years, with additional upside potential beyond what we have forecasted. The major variable for this region will be inventory availability to meet consumer demand.”
