The latest quarterly forecast of wholesale RV shipments calls for 2023 levels unseen in the RV industry since 2013.
ITR Economics, which prepared the forecast for RVIA, projects 2023 wholesale RV shipments in a range of 324,300 to 344,000 RVs. The most likely total, ITR Economics said in the spring 2023 issue of RV RoadSigns, is 334,100 RVs.
The total would be the RV industry’s lowest output since 2013, when the industry shipped 321,127 wholesale RVs. RVIA members can see the full report here.
While we expect shipments to move lower through the first half of 2023 compared to 2022, we see the pace of that decline easing and beginning to recover in the latter part of the year.
ITR Economics’ forecast has dropped drastically since its first 2023 projections, issued in September 2022. The group first forecast 419,000 wholesale RV shipments—which is 20% higher than the current forecast. In December the forecast was revised lower to 391,400, still 14.6% higher than the current projection.
“ITR Economics’ forecast reflects current market conditions – an uncertain economy, high inflation, and rising interest rates,” RVIA President and CEO Craig Kirby said. “This is offset by encouraging reports of strong attendance at retail RV shows and traffic on RV dealer lots – both indicating that consumer interest in RV travel and camping has not diminished.”
With January shipments totaling 20,405, the forecast calls for an average of 26,141 wholesale RV shipments each month for the remainder of 2023.
“While we expect shipments to move lower through the first half of 2023 compared to 2022,” Kirby said, “we see the pace of that decline easing and beginning to recover in the latter part of the year.”
The new forecast would be a 32% decline from the 493,300 wholesale RV shipments in 2022.
The RoadSigns issue said retail inventories are normalizing and reports from RV consumer shows and dealers point toward continued strong interest in RV ownership. Shipments are expected to stabilize in the latter part of the year.
RVIA will host a members-only webinar March 7 to review this new forecast and provide insight on how the forecast was developed from ITR Economics. RVIA members can register for the webinar here.
