The Conference Board Leading Economic Index (LEI) for the U.S. declined 0.3 percent in December to 111.2 (2016 = 100), following a 0.1 percent increase in November, and a 0.2 percent decline in October.
“The US LEI declined slightly in December, driven by large negative contributions from rising unemployment insurance claims and a drop in housing permits,” The Conference Board Senior Director of Economic Research Ataman Ozyildirim said. “The LEI has now declined in four out of the last five months. Its six-month growth rate turned slightly more negative in the final quarter of 2019, with the manufacturing indicators pointing to continued weakness in the sector. However, financial conditions and consumers’ outlook for the economy remain positive, which should support growth of about 2 percent through early 2020.”
Components of The Conference Board Leading Economic Index include:
• Average weekly hours, manufacturing
• Average weekly initial claims for unemployment insurance
• Manufacturers’ new orders, consumer goods and materials
• ISM Index of New Orders
• Manufacturers’ new orders, nondefense capital goods excluding aircraft orders
• Building permits, new private housing units
• Stock prices, 500 common stocks
• Leading Credit Index
• Interest rate spread, 10-year Treasury bonds less federal funds
• Average consumer expectations for business conditions
For the full story with technical notes, click here.
For more information about The Conference Board global business cycle indicators, click here.
