Lippert’s top executives said Tuesday they expect first-quarter wholesale RV shipments to range between 45,000 and 50,000 to start 2023.
RVIA reported eight months in 2021 with wholesale RV shipments of at least 45,000 RVs and five months in 2022 with at least 45,000. Additionally, two more months in 2021 and 2022 reported more than 44,000 wholesale RV shipments.
In the fourth quarter of 2022, as manufacturers slowed production to more evenly match retail sales, RVIA reported the industry totaled 77,004 wholesale RV shipments.
“That is far off when from when you think about Q1 of last year at 170,000-plus units,” Lippert Chief Financial Officer Brian Hall said of the 2023 projections. “As the OEMs hold production levels down or suppress here temporarily to let the inventories deplete some, we would then expect that to start to come back up.”
The slowdown extended into January, the company reported, saying wholesale RV production declined 80% from January 2022.
Lippert President and CEO Jason Lippert said the company forecasts retail sales to outpace wholesale RV shipments the next couple of months, as well as for 2023. Lippert forecasts 2023 retail sales of 370,000-390,000 RVs with wholesale RV shipments between 325,000-350,000.
“We are still trying to find the bottom where we have some (OEM) customers that are taking weeks at a time down between now and into March,” Jason Lippert said. “We are hoping after that, in the March/April timeframe, things start to tick up.”
Although wholesale RV shipments slowed, Jason Lippert said the company’s aftermarket business is surging. Aftermarket parts revenues in January rose 65% from January 2022.
“That is dealers calling in, needing replacement parts and parts for service, and we just see that activity up significantly right now,” he said. “We know that trend will continue, especially as they have more time to service units and more service base have come online over the last 12 months.
Jason Lippert said the company received 1.2 million calls to its contact center in 2022 regarding service and repair. The company reported increased service at dealerships as RV purchases slowed in the second half of 2022.
“The RV (aftermarket) business is exceeding expectations in terms of just volume,” he said. “We expect that to continue through this year.”
Among the positives Lippert executives discussed were the performances of new products during 2022. Jason Lippert listed OEM suspension system brakes, Tire Linc tire pressure management systems, OneControl multiplex development and new appliance, awning, door and window products for getting “tremendous traction with OEMs.”
The new product success provides Lippert with some insulation against potential de-contenting in 2024 model year RVs, Jason Lippert said. He said this model year is the time to show consumers the value provided in RVs.
“ABS brakes, we launched this year,” he said. “We have got a ton of interest in that. And that is actually doubling the cost of axle products in the units. So, the innovative products that we supply to the industry, due to the fact that they not really commoditized, they are really special. We tend to have more of these types of options. … (De-contenting) tends not to affect us much, because if you need an axillary slide out on the unit, you are going to use an axillary slide or leveling systems. You are not going to take that stuff that the consumer needs off the unit.”
Lippert executives said they hear positive feedback from dealers to start 2023, with retail sales occurring. Jason Lippert said reports of strong traffic and purchases at January consumer RV shows have been healthy and are helping dealers rebalance inventories.
“I think everybody is just positioned to get dealers in the best position they can before (the summer selling season),” Jason Lippert said. “All signs and commentary have been positive. Retail seems to have stabilized. Retail staying healthy is the most important thing we have going for our industry right now.”
Jason Lippert also addressed concerns over model year changeover and whether OEMs would consider postponing 2024 releases to clear out 2022 and 2023 models.
“I think there is a lot of talk around that,” he said. “The biggest problem right now probably is just the 2022 model year. It was the largest produced model year in the history of RVs. There is a lot of that product in the pipeline, but we have heard all sorts of stories over the last couple of months where the OEMs are doing what they need to do to blow that product out to the dealers and get it in the hands of the retail. On the other hand … there is not a lot of (2023) product being built. I do not anticipate that is going to be a big issue. I think the OEMs and dealers are doing a really good job working together.”
