Before we can look at the current state of repair event cycle time (RECT), let’s go down memory lane and look back at where we were when we started tracking cycle times at RV dealerships across the U.S.
In 2018, average RECT for all work orders we reviewed was just 26 days. I say “just” because last year the average RECT jumped to 41 days. So far this year, RECT is averaging 45 days.
Among the main factors affecting RECT was two main bottlenecks’ longer average cycle time: warranty coverage and out-of-stock parts.
RECT for work orders with warranty coverage averaged 38 days from 2018 to 2020, increasing to 49 days in 2021, then to 57 days in 2022. For the first quarter of this year, the average was the same as the first quarter of 2022: 59 days, or almost two months.
RECT for work orders with at least one out-of-stock part averaged 52 days in 2018 and 2019. The average grew to 59 days in 2020, then to 76 days in 2021. Last year, average RECT totaled 88 days, nearly three months. However, for the first quarter of this year, the RECT average for work orders with at least one out-of-stock part decreased to 84 days, 10 days less than the first quarter of 2022.
Not only have these bottlenecks’ cycle times grown, but so have the percentages of work orders they affect.
Not surprisingly, after two banner years of new RV sales put many more RVs on the road with warranty coverage, the percentage of work orders with warranty coverage increased 17% since 2020. In 2020, this bottleneck represented just 41% of all the work orders reviewed.
The average of work orders with warranty coverage rose to 44% of all work orders in 2021 and jumped to 47% last year. For the first quarter of this year, the average increased to 48%.
The percentage of work orders with at least one out-of-stock part is up about 36% since 2020. From 2018 through 2021, this bottleneck represented 22% of all work orders, changing very little from year to year. Last year, however, the percentage of work orders with at least one out-of-stock part totaled 24% of all work orders. For the first three months of this year, the average rose again to 30%.
Unfortunately, the biggest increase we tracked was in the percentage of work orders impacted by both bottlenecks. These work orders had both warranty coverage and out-of-stock parts.
Work orders with warranty coverage and out-of-stock parts averaged about 12% of all work orders from 2018 to 2021. Last year, the average grew to 14%. In the first quarter of this year, the average rose again to over 17% of all work orders. The average for work orders with both bottlenecks has increased 42% since 2020.
RECT for work orders with both bottlenecks has never been quick. These work orders averaged 61 days RECT in 2018 and 2019 and climbed to 71 days in 2020. In 2021, RECT rose to 89 days and averaged an incredible 105 days in 2022.
However, the first quarter of 2023 reflected big improvements compared with the first quarter of 2022. Average cycle times for work orders with warranty coverage and out-of-stock parts dropped 12 days to 93 days.
With the significant rise in work orders affected by both bottlenecks, and the resulting long cycle times rising significantly, we needed to slice the data thinner. Dissecting the bottlenecks into their basic components can help determine exactly where the weakest process link is.
Recently, four of the six RECT components improved from the same time a year ago. These improvements indicate some efforts to reduce cycle times are starting to pay off.
Start days for work orders experiencing both bottlenecks increased from a 21-day average in 2020 to a 33-day average last year. However, the average start days have improved compared with previous years. The 2022 fourth-quarter average was lower than the same period in 2021. The average start days for work orders with both bottlenecks in the first quarter of 2023 fell compared with those in the first quarter of 2022 and 2021.
Average delivery days for work orders experiencing both bottlenecks increased from 13 days in 2020 to 18 days last year. For the first quarter of 2023, the delivery-day average dropped by three days from the first quarter of 2022, averaging 17 days.
Average lead time days for work orders with both bottlenecks grew from 19 days in 2020 to 29 days last year. This year, the average in the first quarter of this year fell to 26 days. This was five days less than the average in the first quarter of 2022.
Repair wait days for work orders with both bottlenecks jumped from averaging 20 days in 2020 to 30 days in 2022. Again, the average in the first quarter of this year saw some improvements, dipping to 27 days, four days less than the 2022 first-quarter average.
However, two components historically have taken longer to complete. Neither has shown improvements in the first quarter of this year, and each continues to be an industry challenge.
The average number of identification days for work orders with both bottlenecks climbed from 27 days
in 2020 to 41 days last year. The first-quarter average in 2023 remained the same as the first-quarter average in 2022 at 43 days.
Half of the top 20 manufacturers, by work order volume, reduced the number of identification days in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the first quarter of 2022. However, only three showed significant improvements: Coachmen RV, Prime Time Manufacturing and Winnebago. Winnebago had the lowest average for the number of identification days in the first quarter of 2023 at 30 days. That total was almost back down to the 2020 average.
The average number of job days for work orders experiencing both bottlenecks always has been a particularly slow point in the process. However, job days also saw a significant increase in the past three years, jumping from a 30-day average in 2020 to 45 days in 2022. In this year’s first quarter, job days averaged 50 days, two days more than the first-quarter average in 2022.
Only five of the top 20 manufacturers, by work order volume, decreased their average number of job days for work orders with both bottlenecks in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the first quarter of 2022. Winnebago made the greatest improvement, shaving 17 days from its first-quarter 2022 average. The result was the lowest average for job days with both bottlenecks among the top 20 manufacturers at 32 days, again, near the 2020 average.
However, not all the news is gloom and doom. I am seeing some positives in the data. Although cycle times are seasonal, the average RECT decreased during the first three months of 2023 compared with the 2022 first-quarter average. After five consecutive years of first-quarter increases, this is the first time I have observed such a reduction.
Seventeen of the top 20 manufacturers reduced RECT for work orders with warranty coverage and out-of-stock parts in the first quarter of 2023 compared with the first quarter of 2022. Fifteen of those 17 manufacturers improved by double-digit days.
Winnebago saw the greatest improvement, reducing overall RECT to 84 days. Tiffin had the lowest RECT so far this year at 79 days. Entegra Coach, Fleetwood RV and Grand Design also improved RECT below the three-month average for warranty and out-of-stock parts cycle times.
Don Miller is a senior data consultant at Constellation Dealer Group. With more than 30 years of experience in the industry, Miller provides training, consulting and analytical services to dealerships. He specializes in data analysis and worked extensively to educate dealerships on adopting a data-driven decision model. Miller created the IDS RECT report, an RVDA Chairman’s Service Award-winning report. The report is used globally by dealerships to deliver better customer experiences.
