The World Bank’s semi-annual Commodity Markets Outlook calls for average metal price increases of 30 percent from 2020. Copper, tin and iron ore prices have reached 10-year highs in 2021’s first three months.
“Prices have been boosted by strong demand in China, the ongoing global economic recovery, supply disruptions and a weaker U.S. dollar,” the report stated.
Aluminum prices rose 9 percent in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2020. The outlook stated the price gains reflected surging vehicle demand and construction activity growth. Prices are forecast to increase 29 percent in 2021 from 2020 levels.
Copper prices rose 18 percent in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2020. Copper demand will gain from the transition to electric vehicles, the outlook stated. Prices are forecast to increase 38 percent in 2021 from 2020 levels.
Iron ore prices rose 25 percent in the first quarter from the first quarter of 2020. The outlook stated the price surge reflected “robust” steel production demand in China. Prices are forecast to increase 24 percent in 2021 from 2020 levels.
“Metal price shocks are primarily driven by external demand factors, such as global recessions and recoveries,” World Bank Senior Economist John Baffe said.
