A report from the National Retail Federation and Hackett Associates found cargo volume imported to the nation’s major ports has hit its expected peak for the year.
The report said cargo volume should gradually slow headed into the holiday season.
NRF Vice President for Supply Chain and Customs Policy Jonathan Gold said: “Cargo volumes will still be strong the rest of the year, but not as high as we expected a month ago. Retailers stocked up early this year as a safeguard against supply chain labor issues and are well-situated to meet consumer demand. Shoppers are spending more than they did last year, but the rate of growth we have seen the past couple of years has slowed and retailers are working to strike the right balance of supply and demand.”
Hackett Associates founder Ben Hackett said slower consumer spending in the second half of 2023 is contributing to the import cargo slowdown.
“We are already seeing this in the operational decisions carriers are making,” Hackett said. “They have slowed down their ships in an attempt to cut capacity without having to take vessels out of service as new, larger ones ordered when demand was higher are delivered. Even so, ships are not sailing fully loaded, and freight rates are declining as a result. That is a further indication that no cargo growth from current levels is expected on the near-term horizon. Perhaps 2024 will be better.”
Inbound volume at U.S. ports covered by Global Port Tracker was forecast to reach 2 million Twenty-Foot Equivalent Units in August and remain at that level through October.
Instead, ports handled 1.96 million TEU—one 20-foot container or its equivalent—in August. The total was up 2.3% from July and was the busiest month in 2023. However, August’s total was down 13.5% from August 2022 levels.
Global Port Tracker projected September imports at 1.94 million TEU, down 4.3% year over year. October is forecast at 1.94 million TEU, down 3.1% year over year. November is forecast at 1.91 million TEU and December at 1.88 million TEU.
The forecast totals would bring 2023 final levels to 22.1 million TEU, down 13.5% from 3033 and down 14.3% from 2021’s record levels.
