Craig Kennison, senior research analyst at Baird & Co., talked with RVDA President Phil Ingrassia about Baird’s retail forecast for 2021, saying the company projected an average year for retail sales.
The discussion came as part of an on-demand session at the virtual RVDA Convention/Expo, which launched Monday.
Kennison said the 2020 midpoint in a forecast range was 470,000 retail units sold in North America. Recent trends have been better, he added, so that total could finish higher. Shipments this year are projected to be around 425,000.
In 2021 the analyst said Baird projected 440,000 to 460,000 retail units sold.
“Essentially, it would be an average year over the last five years,” Kennison said. “That’s at least a good working assumption. Could it be better than that? For sure.”
The first-time buyer influx has provided demand as high as 40 percent in 2020.
“We would not expect as many of them to return next year,” Kennison said. “It probably peaked in the pandemic.”
Still, regular RVers might step up to provide 2021 demand.
“A lot of people who are regular RVers probably said, hey, we’ve got an RV, thankfully. There’s no need to upgrade this year,” he said.
Those buyers could keep demand stoked in 2021.
“There’s reason to be somewhat optimistic that we’ll see a furtherance of these positive trends,” Kennison said. “Whether next year is an up or down year, the next five years will benefit clearly from the one-time opportunity to see whether this is a good fit for their family.”
RV’s surge in demand goes along with larger outdoor trends in 2020, he said.
“It became obvious quickly, with nothing else to do, with summer plans canceled, the outdoor leisure category was going to be a pandemic winner,” Kennison said. “It was the dealers that told us things are different here.”
